Discussions on international relations
have always been dominated by affairs of West Asia. Recent events in the region
(unrest in Syria and the Iranian nuclear impasse) have only served to
highlight its predominance in contemporary geopolitics. Much of this
centrality can be attributed to historical and geographical factors.
The West Asian region has a rich
civilizational history. The ancient Mesopotamian and Persian civilizations were
cultural, economic and technological giants. Modern science (particularly
mathematics) and language have much to owe to these ancient behemoths. The
medieval period saw increasing contact between West Asia and other parts of the
world, although not always on cordial terms. The crusades defined the
boundaries of modern religion. The Mughals (with origins in Central Asia) ruled
India for the better part of 300 years. They brought along with them elements
of Islamic culture, architecture and language which proudly coexist till date
with other indigenous elements.
In modern times, West Asia has witnessed a
great deal of turmoil. The region overcame its colonial past only to fall prey
to autocratic (and often theocratic) rulers. Democracy was an exception, rather
than a rule. Inter-state violence was common, driven by territorial and ethnic
conflicts. The recent 'Arab Spring' has seen the re-emergence of green shoots
of democracy in the region, but the movement is already threatened by a
counter-revolution marked by the resurgence of the old guard.
West Asia (comprising, in its broadest
sense, of Iran, Iraq, Turkey, Syria, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon along with
countries in the Persian Gulf: Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, Yemen, Oman,
Bahrain and UAE and North Africa: Egypt, Libya and Tunisia) can best be
described as the geo-center of the world. Apart from being located in the
center of Asia, Africa and Europe, the region is also home to some of the most
important shipping routes in the world. It is impossible to imagine world trade
surviving without the use of Straits of Mandeb, Suez and Hormuz. The abundance
of oil and gas reserves in the region makes the geo-centrality acquire an
economic dimension as well.
It should come as no surprise then, that
the region has been witness to many conflicts of power. Most of these have
their roots in religion. Claims of ownership over the land claimed to be the
birthplace of three major world religions have often turned violent. The
Israel-Palestine conflict (within the larger Israel-Arab conflict) is central
to the region's struggles for power. While the resolution of this decades old
conflict is nowhere in sight, several other fault lines have developed in the
region.
One of them has to do with oil, and the
world's incessant hunger for it. Years since the Soviet disintegration in 1991
have seen the US emerge as the unchallenged economic and military superpower.
Its rising energy needs have made it look towards West Asia as a perennial
source of energy. It took the first opportunity it got (the Iraq-Kuwait
conflict in 1991) to establish a permanent foothold in the region.
Subsequently, it not only secured its energy requirements for the coming
decades, but also gained a large influence on the strategic and economic
discourse of the region. Given that oil trade is denominated in dollars and
American institutions dominate world finance, the US enjoys the power to impose
sanctions at will on countries in this region, or even countries trading with
this region. The recent sanctions on Iranian oil exports serve as a case in point.
This is not the only example of the kind
of power accorded to the one who dominates this strategically important area.
Another example relates to the notion of 'hegemony' and 'balance of power'. The
oil export earnings of West Asia have made some countries exceptionally rich.
But most of the riches have been expropriated by the autocratic rulers of these
states. Ironically, the US, which claims to be the champion of freedom and democracy,
has been relentless in its diplomatic backing of these states. It has thereby
secured their cooperation in effecting regime change in countries which are
ideologically opposed to American hegemony in the region. In the pretext of
maintaining balance of power in the region, the US has prevented Iran from
pursuing nuclear enrichment for legitimate civilian purposes. It has spared no
effort in toppling an Iran friendly regime in Syria. It has been ably supported
by the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) states and Turkey, who have received
generous military and economic aid in return.
In this process, the US has also
aggravated ethnic conflicts among Muslims. Iran and Syria are the last
remaining bastions of the Shia elite (who also have the support of the Lebanon
based Hezbollah). The Sunni majority Arab world (particularly the GCC
countries) would be very pleased with a US assisted regime change in these two
countries (on the lines of Iraq).
It is common knowledge that a large part
of Islamic extremist activities are funded by the petrodollars generated in the
oil kingdoms of the Persian Gulf. Any furtherance of ethnic divides in the
region can fuel the spread of extremist elements and their activities. Islamic
extremism is spreading its tentacles from the traditional strongholds in
Afghanistan and Pakistan to hitherto unaffected areas of the Arabian Peninsula
(AQAP, Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula), Western Africa (Boko Haram in
Nigeria), North Africa (AQIM, Al Qaeda in the Maghreb) and East Africa
(Al-Shabab in Somalia)
The ability and willingness of the US and
GCC to manipulate the ethnic divides among Muslims and use the extremist
factions to achieve their own objectives should not be underestimated. It is
already being observed that some elements of Al Qaeda are actively cooperating
with anti-regime forces in Syria. That the US was (and perhaps even currently
is) in negotiations with the Taliban in Qatar, on the future of Afghanistan
should reinforce our doubts. It is through these (often devious) ways that the
US extrapolates its influence over West Asia over the entire world.
But the times are changing. The economic
might of the US and Europe is in decline. What started as the 2008 financial
crisis soon spread to Europe, and is being seen by many as the beginning of the
end of a uni-polar world and the start of the Asian century. The US recognizes
this too, and does not plan to assume for itself the role of the global
vanguard in the future. It has already announced an exit from Afghanistan by
the end of 2014 and hopes to play a more ancillary role in the region. The
exigencies of fiscal consolidation have also forced it to cut military
spending, and accept a reduced role in shaping global geo-politics. This has
been reflected in West Asia too. US (along with Israel and GCC) have not yet
been successful in effecting a regime change in Syria (although they might
eventually succeed in doing so). Russia and China have stalled their efforts at
the UN to get sanctions for direct military intervention. India and other major
economies have resisted implementing US mandated sanctions on oil imports from
Iran.
All these development point to one fact:
American influence in West Asia is waning. The discovery of newer techniques of
extracting shale gas (fracking and horizontal drilling) has also reduced
American dependence on oil and gas from West Asia. US has abundant reserves of
shale gas, and its increasing extraction in years to come, will reduce its
interest in West Asia.
The replacement of the current hegemonic
power structure by a power void in West Asia is inevitable. Whether a new
emerging power (like China) will rise to fill this void or the
political-strategic space will be shared by regional powers remains to be seen.
But whatever characteristics the new power structure assumes, it will have a
profound impact on world politics and economics.
